Monday, May 26, 2003
RELIEVED HK SHED MASKS
By KEITH BRADSHER
HONG KONG, May 24 — The World Health Organization's advisory against travel here, reviled as a curse on the region's economy, has now been lifted, but economic growth may not fully rebound quickly.
Removal of the advisory brought jubilation here on Friday night. Happy crowds thronged bars and restaurants. Most of the people out celebrating had shed the masks that had become a symbol of Hong Kong over the past two months because of the outbreak of SARS.
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Luk Pon-cheung, a 58-year-old tailor who works a foot-cranked sewing machine in a tiny stall next to a steep alley here, said this morning that he was overjoyed by the prospect of an end to the outbreak, which has hurt his business and so many others.
"My heart felt very happy," he said. "I was so excited."
There was more good news this afternoon, when Hong Kong health officials announced that no new SARS infections had been detected in the preceding 24 hours. It was the first time that had happened since the government began releasing daily figures in mid-March.
Yet government officials, business executives and economists here caution that the lifting of the advisory by itself would not restore this city's former vibrancy.
The first problem is that Hong Kong remains on the World Health Organization's list of areas that have had new infections of SARS within the last 20 days.
The health agency removed the travel advisory for Hong Kong after officials here provided evidence that practically all recent cases occurred among people who were known to have been exposed to the disease and had been quarantined in their homes before they started feeling sick and before they could infect others.
But up to four new cases a day have been reported for the last week among such people, mostly family members of previous SARS patients.
The Hong Kong government has set aside $128 million for a global marketing campaign to resuscitate Hong Kong's paralyzed tourist industry. But the government here does not plan to start a big appeal to foreign tourists until Hong Kong is off the list of infected areas, a government spokesman said today. This may mean waiting until July or August, he added.
Business travel, in many ways more important to the Hong Kong economy, has already started to revive. Big banks like HSBC and other multinationals with large operations here have already started lifting their restrictions on traveling to Hong Kong.
On Friday, the health agency also lifted its advisory against travel to neighboring Guangdong Province in southern China, where the outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, is believed to have started in November. Business executives all over the world have been waiting to visit their factories and suppliers in Guangdong.
Many such travelers are accustomed to staying in Hong Kong and have met with bankers, shipping companies, warehouse operators and other trade-related businesses based here, between short trips to factories in Guangdong Province.
Guangdong is China's most prosperous region and has the country's biggest concentration of factories, with exports now exceeding South Korea's, although the region around Shanghai is starting to catch up.
Guangdong has become the world's biggest center of shoe production and one of the biggest apparel-producing regions, and had drawn a constant stream of visitors from New York's garment industry until the outbreak.
With the lifting of the advisory, "we have had some inquiries already," said Nigel Roberts, the general manager of the Great Eagle Hotel in Kowloon, which caters to the garment industry. "We're going to go from a base of practically nothing," he added, "so we have to rebuild our business again."
The biggest question here is whether SARS has been completely contained. The W.H.O. lifted its travel advisory for Toronto on April 29 and removed the city from its list of infected areas last week, but Canadian health officials said on Friday that they had identified more than 20 possible new cases.
Hong Kong shares with mainland China one of the world's busiest land borders, and SARS has not yet been controlled in northern China, where the Chinese government reported 34 new cases today. Further, many travelers passing through Hong Kong to Guangdong Province are from Taiwan, which reported 10 more cases today.
Dr. Margaret Chan, Hong Kong's health director, warned that the struggle here was not over. "We must stay vigilant and take measures to avoid contracting the disease and prevent its spread," she said.
To make matters worse, Hong Kong's two main rivals as bases for international companies, Singapore and Shanghai, have each had far fewer cases of SARS this spring. That was apparently partly luck, but possibly also because Singapore was much more aggressive in quarantining people who might be infected.
Repeated warnings in the past week by American officials that SARS, like many respiratory diseases, might fade away in late spring but then return in autumn were perhaps the most worrying news.
"If this thing is going to come back in the fall, as some people are suggesting, there's going to be some permanent damage" to the Hong Kong economy, said William Belchere, an Asia economist with J. P. Morgan Chase.
Guangdong would be less affected than Hong Kong by a return of SARS because it relies mostly on manufacturing, which has not been disrupted so much by the presence of the disease, Mr. Belchere said. Hong Kong depends more on businesses that provide services, and such businesses depend on public confidence, which SARS can undermine.
But such worries seemed far from most people's minds on the hot and muggy but sunlit streets of Hong Kong today. At a small orchid shop on a crowded downtown street, where brilliant red and purple blossoms waited for buyers, customers bustled in and out, few in masks.
Wong Chung-man, the 64-year-old manager, said the number of shoppers in the store had plunged from 120 a day in the winter to fewer than 10 at the height of the SARS outbreak, but had almost fully recovered in the last few days.
With the lifting of the travel advisory, he said optimistically, "everyone will not be afraid — everything will be good."
By KEITH BRADSHER
HONG KONG, May 24 — The World Health Organization's advisory against travel here, reviled as a curse on the region's economy, has now been lifted, but economic growth may not fully rebound quickly.
Removal of the advisory brought jubilation here on Friday night. Happy crowds thronged bars and restaurants. Most of the people out celebrating had shed the masks that had become a symbol of Hong Kong over the past two months because of the outbreak of SARS.
Advertisement
Luk Pon-cheung, a 58-year-old tailor who works a foot-cranked sewing machine in a tiny stall next to a steep alley here, said this morning that he was overjoyed by the prospect of an end to the outbreak, which has hurt his business and so many others.
"My heart felt very happy," he said. "I was so excited."
There was more good news this afternoon, when Hong Kong health officials announced that no new SARS infections had been detected in the preceding 24 hours. It was the first time that had happened since the government began releasing daily figures in mid-March.
Yet government officials, business executives and economists here caution that the lifting of the advisory by itself would not restore this city's former vibrancy.
The first problem is that Hong Kong remains on the World Health Organization's list of areas that have had new infections of SARS within the last 20 days.
The health agency removed the travel advisory for Hong Kong after officials here provided evidence that practically all recent cases occurred among people who were known to have been exposed to the disease and had been quarantined in their homes before they started feeling sick and before they could infect others.
But up to four new cases a day have been reported for the last week among such people, mostly family members of previous SARS patients.
The Hong Kong government has set aside $128 million for a global marketing campaign to resuscitate Hong Kong's paralyzed tourist industry. But the government here does not plan to start a big appeal to foreign tourists until Hong Kong is off the list of infected areas, a government spokesman said today. This may mean waiting until July or August, he added.
Business travel, in many ways more important to the Hong Kong economy, has already started to revive. Big banks like HSBC and other multinationals with large operations here have already started lifting their restrictions on traveling to Hong Kong.
On Friday, the health agency also lifted its advisory against travel to neighboring Guangdong Province in southern China, where the outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, is believed to have started in November. Business executives all over the world have been waiting to visit their factories and suppliers in Guangdong.
Many such travelers are accustomed to staying in Hong Kong and have met with bankers, shipping companies, warehouse operators and other trade-related businesses based here, between short trips to factories in Guangdong Province.
Guangdong is China's most prosperous region and has the country's biggest concentration of factories, with exports now exceeding South Korea's, although the region around Shanghai is starting to catch up.
Guangdong has become the world's biggest center of shoe production and one of the biggest apparel-producing regions, and had drawn a constant stream of visitors from New York's garment industry until the outbreak.
With the lifting of the advisory, "we have had some inquiries already," said Nigel Roberts, the general manager of the Great Eagle Hotel in Kowloon, which caters to the garment industry. "We're going to go from a base of practically nothing," he added, "so we have to rebuild our business again."
The biggest question here is whether SARS has been completely contained. The W.H.O. lifted its travel advisory for Toronto on April 29 and removed the city from its list of infected areas last week, but Canadian health officials said on Friday that they had identified more than 20 possible new cases.
Hong Kong shares with mainland China one of the world's busiest land borders, and SARS has not yet been controlled in northern China, where the Chinese government reported 34 new cases today. Further, many travelers passing through Hong Kong to Guangdong Province are from Taiwan, which reported 10 more cases today.
Dr. Margaret Chan, Hong Kong's health director, warned that the struggle here was not over. "We must stay vigilant and take measures to avoid contracting the disease and prevent its spread," she said.
To make matters worse, Hong Kong's two main rivals as bases for international companies, Singapore and Shanghai, have each had far fewer cases of SARS this spring. That was apparently partly luck, but possibly also because Singapore was much more aggressive in quarantining people who might be infected.
Repeated warnings in the past week by American officials that SARS, like many respiratory diseases, might fade away in late spring but then return in autumn were perhaps the most worrying news.
"If this thing is going to come back in the fall, as some people are suggesting, there's going to be some permanent damage" to the Hong Kong economy, said William Belchere, an Asia economist with J. P. Morgan Chase.
Guangdong would be less affected than Hong Kong by a return of SARS because it relies mostly on manufacturing, which has not been disrupted so much by the presence of the disease, Mr. Belchere said. Hong Kong depends more on businesses that provide services, and such businesses depend on public confidence, which SARS can undermine.
But such worries seemed far from most people's minds on the hot and muggy but sunlit streets of Hong Kong today. At a small orchid shop on a crowded downtown street, where brilliant red and purple blossoms waited for buyers, customers bustled in and out, few in masks.
Wong Chung-man, the 64-year-old manager, said the number of shoppers in the store had plunged from 120 a day in the winter to fewer than 10 at the height of the SARS outbreak, but had almost fully recovered in the last few days.
With the lifting of the travel advisory, he said optimistically, "everyone will not be afraid — everything will be good."
